“REALLY IN EVERY SEGMENT OF COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE TRANSFORMATIONS TO THE SIDE OF PUBLIC FUNCTIONS, WHICH ARE A MIX OF AN INTERESTING MODERN CONSUMER”
Anna Danchenok, Head of Strategic Consulting Practice in the Real Estate Sector of PwC in Russia, discusses the development of different segments of the commercial real estate market, general trends and the future of development. – Can coworking compete with standard offices? – You know, the coworking market occupies about 0.3% of the total supply in the office segment. And even in the USA their share does not exceed 1.5%. Accordingly, it is probably too early to say that this is a competitor, but I would call coworking an effective tool for filling business centers, which, as we all know, still experience certain difficulties with this. – Now they are opening in large numbers, in Moscow City, for example … – Yes, the average annual rate is about 20-30%. And this is not only in Moscow, it is actually a global trend. – But is it still about business centers, not about the “new Moscow”? – I think, first of all, these will be premium locations in the central part of the capital, where the demand for offices as a whole is concentrated. Not so long ago, our company conducted a study of the areas most attractive for opening coworking, and, as expected, the regions of the Central Administrative District and the adjacent areas of the Central Administrative District were in the top 10. – And what can be the share of coworking in a business center? – The average area of coworkings opened in Moscow over the past few years is about 500 square meters. m, although there are examples of up to 1.5 thousand square meters. m. And in the United States, for example, there are coworkings and 10 thousand square meters. m. Accordingly, the share of the total area of the business center may be different, but in any case it is unlikely to exceed 5-10%. At the same time, in the future 10-15 years, the share of coworking may increase significantly. Such a process in the organization of the workspace may become, if not dominant, then, in any case, a full-fledged participant in the market, simply because the audience of coworking centers is changing. Now they are mainly freelancers and companies of less than 20 people in certain areas (technology, media, advertising, etc.). But the rapidly growing share of outsourcing allows us to predict significant growth for the coworking format. Already today there are precedents when large companies renting places for specific projects or companies where the number of employees varies significantly over time become clients of coworking. Such companies can also rent 50-80 seats at a time. – You are talking about outsourcing, but now there is already talk that this idea has failed … – This is not entirely true. It is believed that the idea of transferring their employees to “work at home” failed, and this is not the same. Indeed, this idea does not always work and not everywhere, and now some large American companies have already begun to transfer their employees back to offices, because the efficiency of the companies was significantly reduced. We are talking about outsourcing as a method of optimizing work. And it’s quite difficult to challenge this trend, since everyone understands that it’s more efficient to give some professional tasks to highly specialized companies than to cover the entire amount of work with your own staff. – Turning to the topic of trade, do you agree that now a shopping center is not only a trade, it should be some kind of community center? – It all started here, probably, with a significant change in shopping itself in human life. With the advent of online trading, it has become much easier to make some purchases on the Internet. And what remains of the shopping centers? Only some leisure component, which can generate traffic. We are mainly talking about entertainment and catering, respectively, we are now observing an increase in the share of this particular group of tenants in the pool structure. If earlier catering occupied an average of 5% in a shopping center, now it is already 10, and in some shopping centers 15%. The same thing with entertainment – if earlier they occupied 15%, now it is already 20%. Not only the volume of occupied premises is growing, but also new formats are appearing, both in that and in another segment. These are new concepts of food courts, new restaurants, gastronomic markets … In entertainment, these are educational concepts for children, who are now very numerous and are actively developing. Interestingly, this idea of a leisure center was not born today or yesterday. Back in the 50s, the famous Viennese architect Victor Gruen developed the concept of a shopping center, which we would now call the “shopping center of the future.” Then this concept assumed a certain mix of formats in the shopping center, and not only shopping. There were supposed to appear jazz concerts, and a theater, and a library, and a kindergarten, and many other services. Of course, at that time social formats were quickly replaced by more profitable retail formats. And only now we are gradually starting to rethink this concept, and it is becoming more and more relevant for us. For example, in Britain, the introduction of a clinic, fitness and several sports studios in the shopping center increased its attendance by several million people a year.